A) A CONNECTED WORLD IN FLUX: WORLD SHRINKING BUT OUTCOMES DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS YEARS
1. New Phase of Globalisation: Although goods are still traded in higher volumes, some services are growing up to 3X faster This changes the mix of industries and countries involved in this shift from goods to services.
2. Asia’s Ascent: Trade with and within Asia is rising Region’s economic might is growing rapidly, and with higher disposable incomes, consumption is growing as well.
3. China’s Changing Relationships: China has been reducing its exposure to the world, while the world’s exposure to China has risen steadily This unequal engagement has a ripple effect on everything, from financial markets to flows of technology and innovation.
B) TECH AND FUTURE OF WORK
4. Digital India: India’s burgeoning digital population could make it one of the world’s biggest consumer markets.
1.24 billion people enrolled under world’s largest digital ID programme
12.3 billion downloads in 2018
1.17 billion mobile subscribers
625m+ broadband subscribers
400 m+ smartphone devices
300 m+ social media users
5. New Geography of Work in the US: Significant amount of talent and investment will be concentrated in a few regions 60% of job growth by 2030 could be concentrated in 25 cities and their peripheries.
6. Automation’s Effect on Gender at Work: Globally, men and women at similar risk of losing their jobs to automation JOBS AT RISK (FULL-TIME EQUIVALENT)
Women 107 m (20% of female jobs, 2017), including 52 m in China and 12 m in India
Men 163 m (21% of male jobs, 2017), including 66 m in China and 44 m in India
WOMEN AT A DISADVANTAGE Face additional barriers that make it harder for them to transition into more skilled roles
C) INEQUALITIES & UNCERTAINTIES
7. Declining Labour Share of Income: Long considered stable, labour shares in recent years have seen a secular downward trend with negative consequences Boom-bust commodity cycles and rising depreciation are the main factors behind this trend, more than automation or globalisation.
Stagnating incomes mean less purchasing power at a time when costs of housing, healthcare and other basic necessities have risen.
8. Changing Consumption Costs: Global inequality gap has narrowed, but within developed economies, it has actually increased. Higher costs of basic items have eaten into disposable incomes in many mature economies.
(Labour share is amount of GDP paid in wages/salary/benefits
D) CHANGING BUSINESS WORLD
9. Rise of Corporate Superstars: In the past two decades, the top 10% of companies with more than $1 billion in revenue account for a larger share of total profits while losses of the bottom 10% have also grown.
WHAT THIS MEANS: The bottom 10% destroy as much value as the top 10% create—and it has only intensified in past 20 years.